Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
